During a hearing on April 7 in the US Senate, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley commented that the Ukrainian army had succeeded in the first phase of the campaign, but warned that the conflict would still drag on.
Sébastien Roblin, a journalist specializing in writing about military and international security issues for Forbes, NBC News and National Interest, said that during a month and a half of fighting, Ukraine took advantage of many favorable factors to hold back the forces.
Ukrainian soldiers carry NLAW anti-tank missiles in the capital Kiev in early March. Photo: AP.
The first factor pointed out by Roblin is the Ukrainian army’s spirit of resistance and combat experience against a much stronger opponent.
When Russia began the military campaign with a force of about 150,000 troops and an overwhelming advantage in air power, armored vehicles and long-range missiles in all three directions of attack, Ukrainian military units did not panic and did not melt away.
US intelligence did not believe that the Ukrainian military could stop the advance of Russian forces for more than a week, leading them to recommend that President Volodymyr Zelensky be evacuated.
After many years of fighting with separatist forces in the east, the Ukrainian government army has accumulated a lot of combat experience and maximized the form of asymmetric warfare.
They do not seek to stop Russia’s superior strength at the border, but take advantage of the vast territory to stretch the enemy’s formation, then proactively conduct quick counterattacks and ambush armored formations.
Kiev also abandoned empty areas that could not be defended, in order to concentrate efforts on protecting densely populated urban areas of strategic importance.
Ukrainian infantry does not concentrate in large formations, but is divided into small detachments to limit being surrounded and suppressed, then conduct quick attacks and quick withdrawals on the enemy formation.
However, Roblin also pointed out that this tactic is unlikely to succeed if the Ukrainian army is not strengthened with a series of modern weapons aided by the West.
About 20 countries, most of them members of NATO and the European Union (EU), have poured many weapons, mainly anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), into Ukraine since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine.
In this campaign, Western intelligence assessed that Moscow had mobilized 75% of the battalion-level tactical units (BTG) on staff, mainly mechanized formations with strong firepower to quickly crush the ability
However, BTG is very vulnerable to modern Western ATGMs, which have very high accuracy and power against tanks and armored vehicles.
Faced with the superiority of Russian long-range missiles, Ukraine also sought to disperse aircraft to field bases to avoid being wiped out in a pre-emptive strike.
Kiev also benefits from investment in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), especially the Bayraktar TB2 series produced by Türkiye.
UAVs play a significant role in monitoring the battlefield situation, pointing out targets and correcting artillery ballistics.
Situation on the battlefield in Ukraine after a month of fighting.
`NATO can learn many lessons from developments on the Ukrainian battlefield. The war situation shows how an inferior country in many aspects can still hold off an opponent with superior strength,` Roblin emphasized.